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#953550 --- 01/09/09 03:21 PM Solar Storms
Senecamom Offline
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Registered: 02/04/06
Posts: 7411
Loc: On a journey......
A new study from the National Academy of Sciences outlines grim possibilities on Earth for a worst-case scenario solar storm.

Damage to power grids and other communications systems could be catastrophic, the scientists conclude, with effects leading to a potential loss of governmental control of the situation.

The prediction is based in part on a major solar storm in 1859 that caused telegraph wires to short out in the United States and Europe, igniting widespread fires.

It was perhaps the worst in the past 200 years, according to the new study, and with the advent of modern power grids and satellites, much more is at risk.

"A contemporary repetition of the [1859] event would cause significantly more extensive (and possibly catastrophic) social and economic disruptions," the researchers conclude.

Mystery Roar Detected From Faraway Space Cosmic Surprise: Black Holes Older Than Galaxies Five Ways the World Can End Solar-Flare Surprise: Pure Hydrogen Shot at Earth Magnetic Field Hole Could Cripple Communications When the sun is in the active phase of its 11-year cycle, it can unleash powerful magnetic storms that disable satellites, threaten astronaut safety, and even disrupt communication systems on Earth.

The worst storms can knock out power grids by inducing currents that melt transformers.

Modern power grids are so interconnected that a big space storm — the type expected to occur about once a century — could cause a cascade of failures that would sweep across the United States, cutting power to 130 million people or more in this country alone, the new report concludes.

Such widespread power outages, though expected to be a rare possibility, would affect other vital systems.

"Impacts would be felt on interdependent infrastructures with, for example, potable water distribution affected within several hours; perishable foods and medications lost in 12-24 hours; immediate or eventual loss of heating/air conditioning, sewage disposal, phone service, transportation, fuel resupply and so on," the report states.

Outages could take months to fix, the researchers say. Banks might close, and trade with other countries might halt.

"Emergency services would be strained, and command and control might be lost," write the researchers, led by Daniel Baker, director of the Laboratory for Atmospheric and Space Physics at the University of Colorado in Boulder.

"Whether it is terrestrial catastrophes or extreme space weather incidents, the results can be devastating to modern societies that depend in a myriad of ways on advanced technological systems," Baker said in a statement released with the report.

Stormy past

Solar storms have had significant effects in modern time:

— In 1989, the sun unleashed a tempest that knocked out power to all of Quebec, Canada.

— A remarkable 2003 rampage included 10 major solar flares over a two-week period, knocking out two Earth-orbiting satellites and crippling an instrument aboard a Mars orbiter.

"Obviously, the sun is Earth's life blood," said Richard Fisher, director of the Heliophysics division at NASA. "To mitigate possible public safety issues, it is vital that we better understand extreme space weather events caused by the sun's activity."

"Space weather can produce solar storm electromagnetic fields that induce extreme currents in wires, disrupting power lines, causing wide-spread blackouts and affecting communication cables that support the Internet," the report states. "Severe space weather also produces solar energetic particles and the dislocation of the Earth's radiation belts, which can damage satellites used for commercial communications, global positioning and weather forecasting."

Rush to prepare

The race is on for better forecasting abilities, as the next peak in solar activity is expected to come around 2012.

While the sun is in a lull now, activity can flare up at any moment, and severe space weather — how severe, nobody knows — will ramp up a year or two before the peak.

Some scientists expect the next peak to bring more severe events than other recent peaks.

"A catastrophic failure of commercial and government infrastructure in space and on the ground can be mitigated through raising public awareness, improving vulnerable infrastructure and developing advanced forecasting capabilities," the report states. "Without preventive actions or plans, the trend of increased dependency on modern space-weather sensitive assets could make society more vulnerable in the future."

The report was commissioned and funded by NASA. Experts from around the world in industry, government and academia participated. It was released this week.

Copyright © 2009 Imaginova Corp. All Rights Reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.
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#953571 --- 01/09/09 03:33 PM Re: Solar Storms [Re: Senecamom]
HarleyBobT Offline
Senior Member

Registered: 08/22/08
Posts: 5106
Loc: Walloon Freedom Fighter
Originally Posted By: senecamom
A new study from the National Academy of Sciences outlines grim possibilities on Earth for a worst-case scenario solar storm.

Damage to power grids and other communications systems could be catastrophic, the scientists conclude, with effects leading to a potential loss of governmental control of the situation.

The prediction is based in part on a major solar storm in 1859 that caused telegraph wires to short out in the United States and Europe, igniting widespread fires.

It was perhaps the worst in the past 200 years, according to the new study, and with the advent of modern power grids and satellites, much more is at risk.

"A contemporary repetition of the [1859] event would cause significantly more extensive (and possibly catastrophic) social and economic disruptions," the researchers conclude.

Mystery Roar Detected From Faraway Space Cosmic Surprise: Black Holes Older Than Galaxies Five Ways the World Can End Solar-Flare Surprise: Pure Hydrogen Shot at Earth Magnetic Field Hole Could Cripple Communications When the sun is in the active phase of its 11-year cycle, it can unleash powerful magnetic storms that disable satellites, threaten astronaut safety, and even disrupt communication systems on Earth.

The worst storms can knock out power grids by inducing currents that melt transformers.

Modern power grids are so interconnected that a big space storm — the type expected to occur about once a century — could cause a cascade of failures that would sweep across the United States, cutting power to 130 million people or more in this country alone, the new report concludes.

Such widespread power outages, though expected to be a rare possibility, would affect other vital systems.

"Impacts would be felt on interdependent infrastructures with, for example, potable water distribution affected within several hours; perishable foods and medications lost in 12-24 hours; immediate or eventual loss of heating/air conditioning, sewage disposal, phone service, transportation, fuel resupply and so on," the report states.

Outages could take months to fix, the researchers say. Banks might close, and trade with other countries might halt.

"Emergency services would be strained, and command and control might be lost," write the researchers, led by Daniel Baker, director of the Laboratory for Atmospheric and Space Physics at the University of Colorado in Boulder.

"Whether it is terrestrial catastrophes or extreme space weather incidents, the results can be devastating to modern societies that depend in a myriad of ways on advanced technological systems," Baker said in a statement released with the report.

Stormy past

Solar storms have had significant effects in modern time:

— In 1989, the sun unleashed a tempest that knocked out power to all of Quebec, Canada.

— A remarkable 2003 rampage included 10 major solar flares over a two-week period, knocking out two Earth-orbiting satellites and crippling an instrument aboard a Mars orbiter.

"Obviously, the sun is Earth's life blood," said Richard Fisher, director of the Heliophysics division at NASA. "To mitigate possible public safety issues, it is vital that we better understand extreme space weather events caused by the sun's activity."

"Space weather can produce solar storm electromagnetic fields that induce extreme currents in wires, disrupting power lines, causing wide-spread blackouts and affecting communication cables that support the Internet," the report states. "Severe space weather also produces solar energetic particles and the dislocation of the Earth's radiation belts, which can damage satellites used for commercial communications, global positioning and weather forecasting."

Rush to prepare

The race is on for better forecasting abilities, as the next peak in solar activity is expected to come around 2012.

While the sun is in a lull now, activity can flare up at any moment, and severe space weather — how severe, nobody knows — will ramp up a year or two before the peak.

Some scientists expect the next peak to bring more severe events than other recent peaks.

"A catastrophic failure of commercial and government infrastructure in space and on the ground can be mitigated through raising public awareness, improving vulnerable infrastructure and developing advanced forecasting capabilities," the report states. "Without preventive actions or plans, the trend of increased dependency on modern space-weather sensitive assets could make society more vulnerable in the future."

The report was commissioned and funded by NASA. Experts from around the world in industry, government and academia participated. It was released this week.

Copyright © 2009 Imaginova Corp. All Rights Reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.



Oh NO!! Not 2012 it's the end of the world....ahahahah
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Kristin Davis for NY State Governor,a hard working girl and the hottest candidate NY has ever seen.

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#953748 --- 01/09/09 09:07 PM Re: Solar Storms [Re: HarleyBobT]
boxer Offline
Member

Registered: 06/26/06
Posts: 468
Loc: Seneca Falls
"Solar-Flare Surprise: Pure Hydrogen Shot at Earth Magnetic Field Hole Could Cripple Communications When the sun is in the active phase of its 11-year cycle, it can unleash powerful magnetic storms that disable satellites, threaten astronaut safety, and even disrupt communication systems on Earth.

The worst storms can knock out power grids by inducing currents that melt transformers.

Modern power grids are so interconnected that a big space storm — the type expected to occur about once a century — could cause a cascade of failures that would sweep across the United States, cutting power to 130 million people or more in this country alone, the new report concludes.

Such widespread power outages, though expected to be a rare possibility, would affect other vital systems."

I know solar flares do already wreak havoc, at times and on a lessor scale than this report indicates they could; insofar as damaging our elctronics and the grid that feeds them.

I also know they make for some SPECTACULAR light shows that travel up and down the magnetic lines north and south.

We, my father and I, witnessed these "pulsing color shows" late one evening fishing off Canoga Island.

Literally, we dropped our fishing poles and watched this show which was absolutely spectacular. The lights stayed on tracks changing colors while shooting from pole to pole at the speed of light.

Awesome display ... It went on for hours.

Got hard to pay attention to our poles so we didn't.

Would like to see those colors flashing over Cayuga lake again. Didn't read about any damages from them.


Edited by boxer (01/09/09 09:47 PM)
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#953764 --- 01/09/09 09:46 PM Re: Solar Storms [Re: boxer]
HarleyBobT Offline
Senior Member

Registered: 08/22/08
Posts: 5106
Loc: Walloon Freedom Fighter
Originally Posted By: boxer
"Solar-Flare Surprise: Pure Hydrogen Shot at Earth Magnetic Field Hole Could Cripple Communications When the sun is in the active phase of its 11-year cycle, it can unleash powerful magnetic storms that disable satellites, threaten astronaut safety, and even disrupt communication systems on Earth.

The worst storms can knock out power grids by inducing currents that melt transformers.

Modern power grids are so interconnected that a big space storm — the type expected to occur about once a century — could cause a cascade of failures that would sweep across the United States, cutting power to 130 million people or more in this country alone, the new report concludes.

Such widespread power outages, though expected to be a rare possibility, would affect other vital systems."

I know solar flares do alrady sometimes wreak havoc on a lessor scale than this report indicates they could insofar as damaging out elctronics and the grid that gfeeds them.

I also know they make for some SPECTACULAR light shows that travel up and down the magnetic lines north and south. We witnessed these one evening fishing off Canoga Island. Literally we dropped our fishing poles and watched this show which was spectacular. Changing colors while shooting from pole to pole at the speed of light. Awesome ... It went on for hours.

Got hard to pay attention to our poles so we didn't.

Would like to see those colors flashing over Cayuga lake again. Didn't read about any damages from them.

I seen colors flashing over the lakes before, but I thought it was from the LSD I dropped.
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Kristin Davis for NY State Governor,a hard working girl and the hottest candidate NY has ever seen.

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#953765 --- 01/09/09 09:48 PM Re: Solar Storms [Re: HarleyBobT]
boxer Offline
Member

Registered: 06/26/06
Posts: 468
Loc: Seneca Falls
LOL Coulda been!


This was back in the late 80's.
_________________________
Youth IS wasted on the Young, for good reason.

Me.



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#953766 --- 01/09/09 09:51 PM Re: Solar Storms [Re: boxer]
HarleyBobT Offline
Senior Member

Registered: 08/22/08
Posts: 5106
Loc: Walloon Freedom Fighter
Originally Posted By: boxer
LOL Coulda been!


This was back in the late 80's.

I think it was in the 70's I don't remember much from that time in my life.
_________________________
Kristin Davis for NY State Governor,a hard working girl and the hottest candidate NY has ever seen.

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#953771 --- 01/09/09 09:54 PM Re: Solar Storms [Re: HarleyBobT]
boxer Offline
Member

Registered: 06/26/06
Posts: 468
Loc: Seneca Falls
AhAHAhAHAhhahAHA


I remember reading about those daze. I heard some people ate enough LSD to melt down small battle ships.
_________________________
Youth IS wasted on the Young, for good reason.

Me.



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#953774 --- 01/09/09 09:56 PM Re: Solar Storms [Re: boxer]
boxer Offline
Member

Registered: 06/26/06
Posts: 468
Loc: Seneca Falls
And you are correct, it was in the very EARLY 70's we saw those lights ... Summer of 72 I believe.
_________________________
Youth IS wasted on the Young, for good reason.

Me.



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#953801 --- 01/09/09 10:44 PM Re: Solar Storms [Re: boxer]
VM Smith Offline
Diamond Member

Registered: 11/29/05
Posts: 38160
Loc: Ship of Fools
"73, I think; I was out of the navy when they occurred. A bunch of us watched them from the Pinehurst parking lot.


Edited by VM Smith (01/09/09 10:45 PM)
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#953818 --- 01/09/09 11:29 PM Re: Solar Storms [Re: VM Smith]
WilllOWisp Offline
Senior Member

Registered: 03/11/05
Posts: 3894
Loc: Seneca County
I'm more worried about Yellowstone right now.
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#953851 --- 01/10/09 12:17 AM Re: Solar Storms [Re: WilllOWisp]
VM Smith Offline
Diamond Member

Registered: 11/29/05
Posts: 38160
Loc: Ship of Fools
Originally Posted By: WilllOWisp
I'm more worried about Yellowstone right now.


What are you doing to prepare?
_________________________
If you vote for government, you have no right to complain about what government does.

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#954077 --- 01/10/09 03:25 AM Re: Solar Storms [Re: boxer]
Bing Bong Offline
Senior Member

Registered: 05/12/08
Posts: 2482
Loc: the road to hell
Originally Posted By: boxer
AhAHAhAHAhhahAHA


I remember reading about those daze. I heard some people ate enough LSD to melt down small battle ships.


Yeah, like you. HA HA HA HA HA HA HA!!

Go ahead, deny it.
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#954181 --- 01/10/09 06:29 AM Re: Solar Storms [Re: Bing Bong]
LaughinWillow Offline
Senior Member

Registered: 04/12/01
Posts: 1950
Loc: State of Emergency
I have to say, it's pretty weird that the peak solar storms are predicted in 2012. When I was living on the commune, we always got young folks coming through who tried to convince me about 2012 - but I always said, when I was growing up, 2000 was the "end of the world," and nothing happened - not even that Y2K stuff. I sure sure sure would love to see a total collapse of the world's electronic systems - especially those of the ruling elite. It really would be like people say - either total end of the world Mad Max Under Thunderdome chaos, or the beginning of true human liberty from its violent elite oppressors... Makes me think maybe I have one last burst of youthful "magical thinking" left. But if 2012 comes and goes with no magic, I'm done. An official adult. So come on, sunshine, get with it!
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#954454 --- 01/10/09 03:52 PM Re: Solar Storms [Re: LaughinWillow]
Rascal Offline
Gold Member

Registered: 06/05/00
Posts: 17022
Loc: Brewerton, NY, USA
Originally Posted By: LaughinWillow
I sure sure sure would love to see a total collapse of the world's electronic systems - especially those of the ruling elite. It really would be like people say - either total end of the world Mad Max Under Thunderdome chaos, or the beginning of true human liberty from its violent elite oppressors...


Guns and other weapons are still going to work. But journalists won't be able to report back to the public what the oppressors are doing. So the entire world would be like North Korea. Not human liberty IMO...

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#954482 --- 01/10/09 04:24 PM Re: Solar Storms [Re: LaughinWillow]
VM Smith Offline
Diamond Member

Registered: 11/29/05
Posts: 38160
Loc: Ship of Fools
"I sure sure sure would love to see a total collapse of the world's electronic systems"

Be careful; you might get what you wish for. I wouldn't mind having the oligarchy implode, and start eating its young, but I think the world is MUCH better off keeping the electronics.
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If you vote for government, you have no right to complain about what government does.

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#954669 --- 01/10/09 09:05 PM Re: Solar Storms [Re: LaughinWillow]
Bing Bong Offline
Senior Member

Registered: 05/12/08
Posts: 2482
Loc: the road to hell
Originally Posted By: LaughinWillow
I sure sure sure would love to see a total collapse of the world's electronic systems...


In that case, may I have your computer?
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#954685 --- 01/10/09 09:16 PM Re: Solar Storms [Re: Bing Bong]
VM Smith Offline
Diamond Member

Registered: 11/29/05
Posts: 38160
Loc: Ship of Fools
Dibs on the iPod! You won't need it after the Rapture, anyway.


Edited by VM Smith (01/10/09 09:17 PM)
_________________________
If you vote for government, you have no right to complain about what government does.

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#954760 --- 01/10/09 10:16 PM Re: Solar Storms [Re: VM Smith]
WilllOWisp Offline
Senior Member

Registered: 03/11/05
Posts: 3894
Loc: Seneca County
Originally Posted By: VM Smith
Originally Posted By: WilllOWisp
I'm more worried about Yellowstone right now.


What are you doing to prepare?
Good one VMS.
I am practicing kissing my a-- good bye \:\(
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#954833 --- 01/11/09 12:37 AM Re: Solar Storms [Re: WilllOWisp]
LaughinWillow Offline
Senior Member

Registered: 04/12/01
Posts: 1950
Loc: State of Emergency
I don't have an iPod - they give me the creeps. My husband is still playing LP's...though it sounds like an electronic turntable won't work then either. Maybe a solar-powered record player? Hmmm...
_________________________
War with civilization begins...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XGxBizeiL3s

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#954881 --- 01/11/09 01:36 AM Re: Solar Storms [Re: LaughinWillow]
HarleyBobT Offline
Senior Member

Registered: 08/22/08
Posts: 5106
Loc: Walloon Freedom Fighter
Originally Posted By: LaughinWillow
I have to say, it's pretty weird that the peak solar storms are predicted in 2012. When I was living on the commune, we always got young folks coming through who tried to convince me about 2012 - but I always said, when I was growing up, 2000 was the "end of the world," and nothing happened - not even that Y2K stuff. I sure sure sure would love to see a total collapse of the world's electronic systems - especially those of the ruling elite. It really would be like people say - either total end of the world Mad Max Under Thunderdome chaos, or the beginning of true human liberty from its violent elite oppressors... Makes me think maybe I have one last burst of youthful "magical thinking" left. But if 2012 comes and goes with no magic, I'm done. An official adult. So come on, sunshine, get with it!


Right, sure you lived in commune. Should I put my boots on now or wait until you pitch some more bull?
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Kristin Davis for NY State Governor,a hard working girl and the hottest candidate NY has ever seen.

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#954932 --- 01/11/09 03:52 AM Re: Solar Storms [Re: HarleyBobT]
past tense Offline
Diamond Member

Registered: 03/05/03
Posts: 29711
Loc: Houston, TX
LW has talked for years - long before you showed up - about her years living communally.

We have a few friends living somewhat communally here in Fbx.

http://www.belfairalaska.org/

Interesting stuff. Not for me but lots of great info.
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#955188 --- 01/11/09 06:51 PM Re: Solar Storms [Re: HarleyBobT]
LaughinWillow Offline
Senior Member

Registered: 04/12/01
Posts: 1950
Loc: State of Emergency
Why don't you believe I lived on a commune? Not that unusual. Lived in 2 in the last 10 years, in fact... There are hundreds in the US and around the world - http://www.ic.org My experience was that, well, it SUCKED. Living in community pretty much stripped me of my belief in any solution to human problems - the craziest people I have ever met in my life seemed to gravitate to it. And some of the meanest, too. I tried for 4 years - took on huge responsibility - accounting, visitor and intern coordination, conflict resolution, child care, etc etc etc. This was all while I had 3 children to care for - I really burned myself out. And nothing worked. Nothing made people happy. And nothing stopped the crazies from coming. Oh, and lots of them were racist, sexist, prejudiced against people with disabilities, anti-family, anti-child, pro-hard drugs... It was really painful to see this thing I had always believed so much in reveal itself to be a huge fraud. I'm sure there are some communities that aren't like this - but both of the ones I lived in were this way.

I obviously don't say this for your entertainment, since I'm sure you'll just have some nasty comment no matter what I say. But perhaps someone else is interested in my experience and can take something from it.
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War with civilization begins...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XGxBizeiL3s

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#955599 --- 01/12/09 02:13 AM Re: Solar Storms [Re: past tense]
HarleyBobT Offline
Senior Member

Registered: 08/22/08
Posts: 5106
Loc: Walloon Freedom Fighter
Originally Posted By: past tense
LW has talked for years - long before you showed up - about her years living communally.

We have a few friends living somewhat communally here in Fbx.

http://www.belfairalaska.org/

Interesting stuff. Not for me but lots of great info.


PT,I don't believe your in Alaska...I don't even believe your a real person...I think your nothing but a computer generated response program.
_________________________
Kristin Davis for NY State Governor,a hard working girl and the hottest candidate NY has ever seen.

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#955601 --- 01/12/09 02:16 AM Re: Solar Storms [Re: HarleyBobT]
past tense Offline
Diamond Member

Registered: 03/05/03
Posts: 29711
Loc: Houston, TX
Originally Posted By: HarleyBobT
I don't even believe your a real person


Back at ya...but add an apostrophe and an "e" for good measure.


Edited by past tense (01/12/09 02:16 AM)
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#955956 --- 01/12/09 01:50 PM Re: Solar Storms [Re: past tense]
HarleyBobT Offline
Senior Member

Registered: 08/22/08
Posts: 5106
Loc: Walloon Freedom Fighter
Originally Posted By: past tense
Originally Posted By: HarleyBobT
I don't even believe your a real person


Back at ya...but add an apostrophe and an "e" for good measure.

You are a computer program aren't you?


Edited by HarleyBobT (01/12/09 05:29 PM)
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Kristin Davis for NY State Governor,a hard working girl and the hottest candidate NY has ever seen.

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#956086 --- 01/12/09 05:23 PM Re: Solar Storms [Re: HarleyBobT]
past tense Offline
Diamond Member

Registered: 03/05/03
Posts: 29711
Loc: Houston, TX
...?
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#956088 --- 01/12/09 05:30 PM Re: Solar Storms [Re: past tense]
HarleyBobT Offline
Senior Member

Registered: 08/22/08
Posts: 5106
Loc: Walloon Freedom Fighter
Originally Posted By: past tense
...?
I wasn't sure you'd catch that, time was running out chickadee...ahahah
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Kristin Davis for NY State Governor,a hard working girl and the hottest candidate NY has ever seen.

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