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#1548475 --- 05/18/20 01:39 PM
Re: VACCINE RESULTS
[Re: bluezone]
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Gold Member
Registered: 09/12/18
Posts: 18716
Loc: Seneca County
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https://www.fool.com/investing/2020/05/14/where-will-moderna-be-in-5-years.aspxWhere Will Moderna Be in 5 Years? The stock is being boosted by the biotech's front-runner status in the race to produce a coronavirus vaccine, but where will the company be long after the pandemic? Moderna is no stranger to the bright glare of investor attention. When the company launched its initial public offering (IPO) in December 2018, it was the largest IPO of a clinical-stage biotech in history. And before going public, it had already attracted over $2.6 billion in private equity investments, had $1.2 billion in cash, and had already established partnerships with industry heavyweights like AstraZeneca, Merck, and Vertex One big advantage of Moderna's approach to vaccines is the speed at which the vaccine can be invented and manufactured. When COVID-19 appeared, that nimbleness was exactly what the world needed. The time from the day the sequence for the spike protein of the SARS-CoV-2 was finalized until the first participant in a phase 1 study of its vaccine candidate, mRNA-1273, was dosed was a mere 63 days. The company should be starting a phase 2 study soon, plans a phase 3 trial in early summer, and hopes for approval of the drug in 2021. The coronavirus pandemic accelerated Moderna's vaccine plans, with the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) more than willing to speed up processes to get the vaccine to the public. Moderna's approach to developing a vaccine is the fastest one but not necessarily the best one. So far, we don't have any more evidence that an mRNA vaccine actually prevents disease than we did last year. Despite the rapid progression of clinical tests for mRNA-1273, we still haven't seen any data from the phase 1 trial yet.The company has reported data from phase 1 trials of other mRNA vaccines it has in development for cytomegalovirus (CMV), respiratory viruses human metapneumovirus and parainfluenza type 3, and interim data from a Zika virus vaccine. Those results have been encouraging so far, but the only measures of efficacy have been blood levels of neutralizing antibodies. There is a big difference between observing an immune response and showing that vaccine prevents disease, something that can only be proved by a study with thousands of participants who are potentially exposed to the live virus. In fact, Moderna has yet to produce data that shows that any of its 23 drug candidates can prevent or treat diseases, let alone proof strong enough for an agency approval. That's the big question mark hanging over the company, and it hasn't changed since the IPO. It would not be unusual for a biotech stock of Moderna's growth potential to be valued at 10 to 15 times sales when it's in the commercial phase, and with today's market capitalization of $24 billion, the stock could triple or more by 2025 if the optimistic scenario above comes to pass. But with the technology still unproven, the share price could go in the other direction, too, if there are setbacks.
In the short term -- just looking ahead to next year -- I think the risks outweigh the benefits, given the expectations for the coronavirus vaccine that are now built into the stock price. But longer term, the stock is more interesting because of the potential of its mRNA platform to turn out a steady stream of new drugs. I think an investor who is willing to hold Moderna shares for five years has a reasonable chance for a big payoff, but it's not a sure thing at all.
Edited by Ben444 (05/18/20 03:20 PM)
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