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#1535552 --- 11/04/19 07:40 AM Re: More winning... [Re: cwjga]
Timbo Offline
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Registered: 07/18/12
Posts: 14706
Loc: CNY
Originally Posted By: cwjga
Trump is on his way to an easy win in 2020, according to Moody’s accurate election model
PUBLISHED TUE, OCT 15 201911:33 AM EDTUPDATED TUE, OCT 15 20195:55 PM EDT
Jeff Cox
@JEFF.COX.7528
@JEFFCOXCNBCCOM
KEY POINTS
-President Donald Trump will win reelection easily in 2020 if the economy holds up, modeling by Moody’s Analytics shows.
-“If voters were to vote primarily on the basis of their pocketbooks, the president would steamroll the competition,” the report states.
-Three models show Trump getting at least 289 electoral votes and as many as 351, assuming average turnout.
-The Moody’s models have been backtested to 1980 and were correct each time — except in 2016, when it indicated Clinton would get a narrow victory.


President Donald Trump looks likely to cruise to reelection next year under three different economic models Moody’s Analytics employed to gauge the 2020 race.

Barring anything unusual happening, the president’s Electoral College victory could easily surpass his 2016 win over Democrat Hillary Clinton, which came by a 304-227 count.

Moody’s based its projections on how consumers feel about their own financial situation, the gains the stock market has achieved during Trump’s tenure and the prospects for unemployment, which has fallen to a 50-year low. Should those variables hold up, the president looks set to get another four-year term.

The modeling has been highly accurate going back to the 1980 election, missing only once.


“If the economy a year from now is the same as it is today, or roughly so, then the power of incumbency is strong and Trump’s election odds are very good, particularly if Democrats aren’t enthusiastic and don’t get out to vote,” said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics and co-author of the paper along with Dan White, the firm’s director of government counsulting and fiscal policy research, and Bernard Yaros, an assistant director and economist. “It’s about turnout.”

Three models show Trump getting at least 289 electoral votes, assuming average turnout. His chances decrease with maximum turnout on the Democratic side and increase with minimum turnout expected.

Of the three models, he does best under the “pocketbook” measure of how people feel about their finances. In that scenario, assuming average nonincumbent turnout, he gets 351 electoral votes to the generic Democrat’s 187. “Record turnout is vital to a Democratic victory,” the report said.



In the stock market model, Trump gets a 289-249 edge, while the unemployment model shows a 332-206 advantage. Across all three models, Trump wins 324-214.

“Our ‘pocket¬book’ model is the most economically driven of the three. If voters were to vote primarily on the basis of their pocketbooks, the president would steamroll the competition,” the report said. “This shows the importance that prevailing economic sentiment at the household level could hold in the next election.”

Stock market levels also are key, and the two are intertwined. Zandi said that even a garden-variety 12% market correction around election time could sway the race, as could an unexpected downturn in the economy.

The results might come as a surprise given Trump’s consistently low favorability ratings — 40% in the latest Gallup poll — and as most head-to-head matchups against Democrats show the president losing.

However, the report said that Trump’s relatively stable ratings help provide a good benchmark for how he will do once election time comes.

Zandi said the race could come down a few key counties in Pennsylvania, which Trump flipped in 2016 after the state had voted Democrat in the previous five presidential elections.



Specifically, he said Luzerne County, in the northeast part of the state, “is the single-most important county, no kidding, in the entire election.” The longtime Democratic stronghold favored Trump, 51.8% to 46.8% in the election.

Trump doesn’t even have to win the county, but merely needs a strong turnout, Zandi said.

The Moody’s models have been backtested to 1980 and were correct each time — except in 2016, when they ndicated Clinton would get a narrow victory. The authors attributed “unexpected turnout patterns” in Trump’s favor caused the error and they adjusted for that in the latest projections. They also said the will be updating the projections as conditions develop and change.

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/10/15/moodys-trump-on-his-way-to-an-easy-2020-win-if-economy-holds-up.html

Democrats and the deep state will do everything they can to ruin the economy.


Moodys... now THAT'S funny! grin

Study reveals Moody's Ratings Bias Toward Corporate Owners:

https://www.forbes.com/sites/danielfishe...s/#2c9162ea7ab8
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#1535555 --- 11/04/19 08:03 AM Re: More winning... [Re: cwjga]
Timbo Offline
Silver Member

Registered: 07/18/12
Posts: 14706
Loc: CNY
Originally Posted By: cwjga
FAKE NEWS: Liberal Media Falsely Claims White House Admitted to Quid Pro Quo with Ukraine

Fun Fact #271:

Impeachment and conviction for 'high crimes and misdemeanors' requires NO Quid Pro Quo.

But on a side note, his bald-faced acts of extortion will suffice just nicely, thank you very much.
smirk

Trump (and Republicans) trying again to gaslight the public:
https://www.motherjones.com/politics/201...-its-extortion/
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#1535556 --- 11/04/19 08:10 AM Re: More winning... [Re: Formermac]
Timbo Offline
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Registered: 07/18/12
Posts: 14706
Loc: CNY
Originally Posted By: Formermac
Lets see if the Buffoon gets it. I ask Cwjga if Trump desires to bring industry back to America, he can set the precedent by bringing his own clothing factories back from the sweat shops over in Asia. "Surprisingly" no response as of yet.

Don't you think you're being a little too hard on 'buffoons?' wink
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#1535565 --- 11/04/19 10:00 AM Re: More winning... [Re: Timbo]
Formermac Offline
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Registered: 10/22/12
Posts: 18033
Loc: Above ground
NO Sir, with Trumpsters, the first several layers of ignorance must be penetrated before getting to a normalized comprehension, thus the reason for overexertion. BTW, here is more winning in regard to Trump's NY State defense


https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/donald-...d-over-n1076061
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#1535571 --- 11/04/19 11:51 AM Re: More winning... [Re: cwjga]
cwjga Offline
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Registered: 11/06/08
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Loc: NY

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#1535573 --- 11/04/19 11:56 AM Re: More winning... [Re: cwjga]
cwjga Offline
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Registered: 11/06/08
Posts: 12654
Loc: NY
Bernie calls for quid pro quo. Shocked

Democratic Candidates Debate Using Aid to Israel as Leverage in Policy Disputes

Bernie Sanders says Israel would have to ‘fundamentally change’ its relationship to Gaza to receive aid if he is elected

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#1535574 --- 11/04/19 12:20 PM Re: More winning... [Re: cwjga]
Timbo Offline
Silver Member

Registered: 07/18/12
Posts: 14706
Loc: CNY
Originally Posted By: cwjga
Bernie calls for quid pro quo. Shocked

Democratic Candidates Debate Using Aid to Israel as Leverage in Policy Disputes

Bernie Sanders says Israel would have to ‘fundamentally change’ its relationship to Gaza to receive aid if he is elected

Did Sanders illegally extort a foreign nation (Israel) to dig up dirt on an election opponent in exchange for Congress's already appropriated funding?

No? What Sanders expects is actually perfectly legal and a normal process of political diplomacy. I hope that's not too hard of a concept to wrap your seemingly pointy little head around.
crazy

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#1535577 --- 11/04/19 12:39 PM Re: More winning... [Re: cwjga]
Timbo Offline
Silver Member

Registered: 07/18/12
Posts: 14706
Loc: CNY

Trump's "approval" ranking by state: grin

https://morningconsult.com/tracking-trump-2/
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#1535578 --- 11/04/19 12:43 PM Re: More winning... [Re: cwjga]
Timbo Offline
Silver Member

Registered: 07/18/12
Posts: 14706
Loc: CNY
Originally Posted By: cwjga


Wait a minute... I thought polls couldn't be trusted. whistle
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#1535583 --- 11/04/19 12:54 PM Re: More winning... [Re: cwjga]
cwjga Offline
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Registered: 11/06/08
Posts: 12654
Loc: NY
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/10/30/us-gdp-q3-2019-first-reading.html


US GDP rose a better-than-expected 1.9% in the third quarter as consumers continued to spend

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#1535584 --- 11/04/19 12:55 PM Re: More winning... [Re: cwjga]
cwjga Offline
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Registered: 11/06/08
Posts: 12654
Loc: NY
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/10/30/us-private-payrolls-october-2019.html

Private payrolls increase by 125,000 in October, topping expectations

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#1535586 --- 11/04/19 12:58 PM Re: More winning... [Re: cwjga]
Formermac Offline
Gold Member

Registered: 10/22/12
Posts: 18033
Loc: Above ground
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#1535598 --- 11/04/19 04:43 PM Re: More winning... [Re: cwjga]
Timbo Offline
Silver Member

Registered: 07/18/12
Posts: 14706
Loc: CNY
Originally Posted By: cwjga
FAKE NEWS: Liberal Media Falsely Claims White House Admitted to Quid Pro Quo with Ukraine
BY MATT MARGOLIS OCTOBER 17, 2019CHAT 183 COMMENTS

If you were watching CNN or other liberal media outlets Thursday afternoon, you might have heard the bizarre claim that the White House has admitted to a quid pro quo with Ukraine. CNN even had a breaking news banner saying as much.

'Whizzing' into the wind again I see, Cwiggy! grin

Chris Wallace destroys Kellyanne’s quid pro quo talking points to her face:


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O--NuA-ISdY
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#1535599 --- 11/04/19 04:50 PM Re: More winning... [Re: cwjga]
Timbo Offline
Silver Member

Registered: 07/18/12
Posts: 14706
Loc: CNY

Originally Posted By: cwjga
Private payrolls increase by 125,000 in October, topping expectations

I just love how you conveniently fail to mention the article's figures showing that any gains were more than negated by even worse decreases and job losses.

Keep 'em comin', Cwiggs!!! laugh

Allow me to re-post the link:
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/10/30/us-private-payrolls-october-2019.html
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#1535600 --- 11/04/19 04:52 PM Re: More winning... [Re: Formermac]
Timbo Offline
Silver Member

Registered: 07/18/12
Posts: 14706
Loc: CNY

Yyyyup. Context is EVERYTHING. smirk
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#1535611 --- 11/05/19 05:37 AM Re: More winning... [Re: Timbo]
Teonan Offline
Senior Member

Registered: 05/30/12
Posts: 5389
Loc: Malmö

Originally Posted By: Timbo
Wait a minute... I thought polls couldn't be trusted. whistle

Early polls. Open to question without a doubt.

Anti-Trump repub Tim Miller weights in from the deeper weeds.

Interesting. Worth a look...

Revenge of the Human Scum
So maybe anti-Trump Republicans are going to decide the 2020 election


by Tim Miller
November 5, 2019

There we are, deep in the wilderness. It might be hard for you to see them. After all they barely exist in the wild. They have gone nearly extinct. If you can’t spot them, you might be able to hear their labored breathing, seeing as they are simultaneously gasping for air and on a respirator powered only by their unyielding belief in norms.

It is the much maligned anti-Trump Republicans, expelled from the herd, lurking in the bush, waiting for the moment when they will determine the next president of the United States.

Wait, what?

Absurd, you ask? Maybe so. Far-be-it from me to predict the outcome of next year’s presidential contest. But a new series of PTSD-inducing polls from the New York Times showed that an election hinging on the exanimate Never Trump caucus is a live possibility.


Read on: https://thebulwark.com/revenge-of-the-human-scum/


Tim Miller is a contributor to The Bulwark and a communications consultant. He previously served as senior advisor to the anti-Trump Our Principles PAC, communications director for Jeb Bush, and spokesman for the Republican National Committee.
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#1535613 --- 11/05/19 07:04 AM Re: More winning... [Re: cwjga]
cwjga Offline
Silver Member

Registered: 11/06/08
Posts: 12654
Loc: NY
“The total economic output of Latinos in the United States was $2.3 trillion in 2017, up from $2.1 trillion, according to a new report," MSNBC reported last month.

https://www.msnbc.com/morning-joe/watch/...ans-70346309537

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#1535615 --- 11/05/19 07:48 AM Re: More winning... [Re: cwjga]
Formermac Offline
Gold Member

Registered: 10/22/12
Posts: 18033
Loc: Above ground
Originally Posted By: cwjga
“The total economic output of Latinos in the United States was $2.3 trillion in 2017, up from $2.1 trillion, according to a new report," MSNBC reported last month.

https://www.msnbc.com/morning-joe/watch/...ans-70346309537


ROTFLMAO, where is the report for Black, Jewish, Italian, Muslim, Hispanic etc.? You and your racist narratives. The last truck I purchased wasn't based on my race you idiot, or the the groceries I brought. Now if you desire to not come across as the fool that you are, please submit citation as to how we break down democratic and race in regard to our economy. Furthermore, your racist narrative contradicts the falsehood you and trump pushed just as recent as this summer, that all Mexicans and Latinos were a burden on the economy as well as society. SOOOO what will it be my son? Either they are a asset or burden
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#1535616 --- 11/05/19 11:58 AM Re: More winning... [Re: cwjga]
cwjga Offline
Silver Member

Registered: 11/06/08
Posts: 12654
Loc: NY
"The Hispanic women unemployment rate was 3.8% in September and the Black adult women jobless rate was 4.6%," CNBC reported in October.

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/10/04/black-and-hispanic-unemployment-is-at-a-record-low.html

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#1535619 --- 11/05/19 12:38 PM Re: More winning... [Re: Formermac]
Formermac Offline
Gold Member

Registered: 10/22/12
Posts: 18033
Loc: Above ground
Originally Posted By: Formermac
Originally Posted By: cwjga
“The total economic output of Latinos in the United States was $2.3 trillion in 2017, up from $2.1 trillion, according to a new report," MSNBC reported last month.

https://www.msnbc.com/morning-joe/watch/...ans-70346309537


ROTFLMAO, where is the report for Black, Jewish, Italian, Muslim, Hispanic etc.? You and your racist narratives. The last truck I purchased wasn't based on my race you idiot, or the the groceries I brought. Now if you desire to not come across as the fool that you are, please submit citation as to how we break down democratic and race in regard to our economy. Furthermore, your racist narrative contradicts the falsehood you and trump pushed just as recent as this summer, that all Mexicans and Latinos were a burden on the economy as well as society. SOOOO what will it be my son? Either they are a asset or burden



ROTFLMAO, one ask the idiot about the racial contribution rate to the economy and what does he do? supply the unemployment rate.

https://apnews.com/f78f4205f474482db8bb8fa7a5ebfa27
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