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#1367367 - 10/05/12 09:06 AM Real Unemployment Rate Unchanged At 14.7%…
Ross Falk Offline
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Registered: 09/23/11
Posts: 581
Loc: Gulfport
Unemployment Rate Miraculously Drops To 7.8%, 114K Jobs Added – Update: Real Unemployment Rate Unchanged At 14.7%…



WASHINGTON - The U.S. unemployment rate fell to 7.8 percent last month, dropping below 8 percent for the first time in nearly four years. The rate declined because more people found work, a trend that could have an impact on undecided voters in the final month before the presidential election.

The Labor Department said Friday that employers added 114,000 jobs in September. The economy also created 86,000 more jobs in July and August than first estimated. Wages rose in September and more people started looking for work.

The revisions show employers added 146,000 jobs per month from July through September, up from 67,000 in the previous three months. The unemployment rate fell from 8.1 percent in August, matching its level in January 2009 when President Barack Obama took office.

The decline could help Obama, who is coming off a disappointing debate performance against GOP challenger Mitt Romney.

Stock futures rose modestly after the report. Dow Jones industrial average futures, up 30 points just before the report came out, were up 45 points after it was released.

The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note climbed to 1.73 percent from 1.68 percent just before the report, a sign that investors were more willing to embrace risk and moving money from bonds into stocks.

The job market has been improving, sluggishly but steadily. Jobs have been added for 24 straight months. There are now 325,000 more than when Obama took office.

The September gains were led by the health care industry, which added 44,000 jobs - the most since February. Transportation and warehousing also showed large gains. The revisions showed that governments actually added 63,000 jobs in July and August, compared with earlier estimates that showed losses.

Still, many of the jobs added last month were part time. The number of people with part-time jobs who wanted full-time work rose 7.5 percent to 8.6 million.
© 2012 The Associated Press. All Rights Reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.
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#1367378 - 10/05/12 11:11 AM Re: Real Unemployment Rate Unchanged At 14.7%… [Re: Ross Falk]
Rascal Offline
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Registered: 06/05/00
Posts: 17022
Loc: Brewerton, NY, USA
Quote:
Still, many of the jobs added last month were part time. The number of people with part-time jobs who wanted full-time work rose 7.5 percent to 8.6 million.
© 2012 The Associated Press. All Rights Reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.


That means that with a net gain of 146,000 jobs...That 454,000 jobs went from full time to part time past month.

Or that we lost 454,000 full time jobs and added 600,000 part time.

That is not good...

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#1367384 - 10/05/12 12:28 PM Re: Real Unemployment Rate Unchanged At 14.7%… [Re: Rascal]
Zealot Offline
Senior Member

Registered: 07/29/08
Posts: 2015
Loc: Yates
Who wants to make a bet that the rate continues to drop, right up to Nov. 6th??? Not hard to do when the books that need to be cooked are under your control.
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#1367388 - 10/05/12 12:39 PM Re: Real Unemployment Rate Unchanged At 14.7%… [Re: Ross Falk]
cwjga Offline
Senior Member

Registered: 11/06/08
Posts: 6282
Loc: NY

BREAKING: September Jobs Report Released
Bert Atkinson Jr. October 5, 2012 9:25 am


The streak is over, but that is very misleading.

With over three consecutive years of unemployment above 8 percent, September’s still disappointing jobs reportshows an addition of a meager 114,000 jobs. That’s enough to make unemployment drop to 7.8 percent from the 8.1 percent after August.
The number of unemployed persons (12.1 million) dropped by 456,000.
The number of persons unemployed (2.5 million) for less than 5 weeks declined by 302,000.
The number of long-term unemployed persons (jobless for 27 weeks or more) was little changed at 4.8 million.
The number of long-term unemployed persons accounted for 40.1 percent of the unemployed.
Total employment rose by 873,000 in September.
The Labor Force Participation rate was little changed at 63.6 percent.
The number of persons employed part-time for economic reasons rose from 8.0 million in August to 8.6 million in September.

If the number of unemployed dropped by 456,000, but only 114,000 jobs were added, that means that 342,000 people left the workforce in some fashion. Couple that with the fact that the number of part-time workers saw an increase of 582,000 while manufacturing unemployment saw a decrease of 16,000 jobs and this drop in unemployment rate begins to looks less and less optimistic, and more like a misleading mathematical equation.

In 2012, employment growth has averaged a gain of 146,000 jobs per month, a drop from the average monthly gain of 153,000 in 2011. Given these numbers, the 114,000 jobs added in September begin to look worse and worse, regardless of what the often-misleading unemployment rate says.

The much more telling U-6 unemployment rate, which accounts for unemployment, underemployment, and those marginally attached to the workforce, remained the same at 14.7 percent. That 7.8 percent number does not include so many factors and does not tell the whole story. For instance, if a worker should be employed full time but could only find part time work in September, they helped the “unemployment rate” decrease from 8.1 to 7.8 percent, but they would not have changed the U-6 number at 14.7 percent.



Expect Obama to brag about the addition of 114,000 jobs and the drop in the (misleading) unemployment rate to 7.8 percent, but don’t be fooled. These numbers are still paltry compared to where they should be, or else the U-6 number would have dropped. As CNBC puts it, “Friday’s report underscored how slowly the jobs market is recovering from the depths of the 2008 financial crisis and likely will stoke increased debate amid the halting gains the latest numbers indicate.”
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By an almost 10-point margin, voters would now vote for Mitt Romney rather than Barack Obama. CNN

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#1367414 - 10/05/12 03:01 PM Re: Real Unemployment Rate Unchanged At 14.7%… [Re: Zealot]
Offline

Senior Member

Registered: 01/16/12
Posts: 7644
Originally Posted By: Zealot
Who wants to make a bet that the rate continues to drop, right up to Nov. 6th??? Not hard to do when the books that need to be cooked are under your control.


No thank you!

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#1367417 - 10/05/12 03:04 PM Re: Real Unemployment Rate Unchanged At 14.7%… [Re: ]
Zealot Offline
Senior Member

Registered: 07/29/08
Posts: 2015
Loc: Yates
600,000 of these newly employed people are employed in part time jobs. Hard to make a "living wage" in a part time job. Where are all our favorite libby's complaining about that?
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"The best argument against Democracy is a 5 minute conversation with the average voter" - unknown

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#1367451 - 10/05/12 06:51 PM Re: Real Unemployment Rate Unchanged At 14.7%… [Re: cwjga]
sands Offline
Senior Member

Registered: 09/05/05
Posts: 7503
Loc: NY
Originally Posted By: cwjga
If the number of unemployed dropped by 456,000, but only 114,000 jobs were added, that means that 342,000 people left the workforce in some fashion.



"Pay no attention to that man behind the curtain!" - The Wizard of OZ

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#1367469 - 10/05/12 08:32 PM Re: Real Unemployment Rate Unchanged At 14.7%… [Re: Zealot]
Cuzi Sedso Offline
Senior Member

Registered: 11/06/11
Posts: 1428
Loc: NY
Originally Posted By: Zealot
Who wants to make a bet that the rate continues to drop, right up to Nov. 6th??? Not hard to do when the books that need to be cooked are under your control.
Bullchips! If the White House had the ability to "cook the books" it would have made greater sense to do that months ago or certainly before Wednesday. The fact is that neither the President nor anyone on his staff or anyone else in the administration has the ability to manipulate the data. Jack Welch made such an allegation within minutes after the data was made public, but when asked if he had any evidence whatsoever to back up his wild claim, he said "no."


Edited by Cuzi Sedso (10/05/12 08:36 PM)

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#1367471 - 10/05/12 08:50 PM Re: Real Unemployment Rate Unchanged At 14.7%… [Re: Zealot]
I did it! Offline
Senior Member

Registered: 06/26/12
Posts: 1960
Loc: West Coast 29 Palms
Originally Posted By: Zealot
Who wants to make a bet that the rate continues to drop, right up to Nov. 6th??? Not hard to do when the books that need to be cooked are under your control.


Rates do not drop,those that had benifits drop and not counted . So a true count isn't possible.
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#1367479 - 10/05/12 09:31 PM Re: Real Unemployment Rate Unchanged At 14.7%… [Re: I did it!]
sands Offline
Senior Member

Registered: 09/05/05
Posts: 7503
Loc: NY
Originally Posted By: I did it!
Rates do not drop,those that had benifits drop and not counted . So a true count isn't possible.


A true count is possible and is kept every month, it's just ignored by most.

Here is September's on the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics website http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t15.htm

It shows the "U-3" number is 7.8%. This is the number Obama is throwing around. What he won't tell you is the "U-6" number "Total unemployed" which includes the 342,000 people that left the workforce last month is still 14.7%.

That reminds me. . . .






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