Contrary to Timbo's belief, Palin winning the R nomination for Begich's seat does not guarantee Begich (or another Dem) a win. Alaska is conservative/libertarian and they don't really love Begich. His voting record is uneven--in favor of drilling ANWR (as are most Alaskans), against gun control, in favor of immigration bill, against UN arms treaty, for VAW reauthorization (complicated in Alaska b/c of Native issues vis-a-vis sovereignty), moderate on pro-choice issues, pro-health care, voted to repeal DADT--so it's a mixed bag for voters who are disinclined to vote for a name with a "D" after it.
I'm very curious as to how Palin would do, particularly in the primary phase. I would like to see how she would differentiate herself from Joe Miller, specifically, since she supported him the first time around and versus the current Lt. Gov. who is far more mainstream than Miller. It would be a hell of a primary, but I think Treadwell would do best against Begich. No baggage of being a quitter/grifter (Palin) or a thief (Miller), and both Palin and Miller have had residency questions put Alaskans on their guard. It's especially dicey--residency--because if you collect a PFD you have to sign legal forms declaring you have lived in the state for an entire calendar year, save specific allowable absences. People are convicted of PFD fraud if they are caught lying, living elsewhere.
I was being ironic. While Alaska clearly has a strong Tea Party ideology, and obviously Palin could put a considerable fight. There are equally great numbers of Alaskans who've been deeply screwed by her politics and are now highly p!ssed. She made several rabid enemies of some very powerful officials in the state.
While there will always be a special type of Palin devotee, ready to walk over the coals for her reactionary drift, there can be no understating how detrimental her admittance into national politics, has harmed the the GOP both in terms of image in general and Republican voter turn out, specifically.
I have NO doubt that Palin winning a battle in Alaska, WILL guarantee that the GOP loses the war. The party has completely dismantled it's reputation with centrist voters by hitching their wagon to these fringe Randian ideologies.
Of course, time will tell, but I see no indications suggesting that the party has learned
anything from the last two national election beatings. On the contrary, they've simply doubled down on the venomous rhetoric and now seem poised to run a new round of smear and disinformation.